jcm’s USFS Nationals’ Podium Predictions

Chime in with your own predictions! If you wish to take part in my Olympics’ Podium Predictions Contest, click here.

Ladies

(2 berths)

1. Rachael Flatt
2. Sasha Cohen
3. Ashley Wagner

IF Sasha withdraws:

1. Rachael Flatt
2. Ashley Wagner
3. Alissa Czisny

Although Sasha has confirmed her attendance as recently as last week, I’m providing a backup plan, as I’m still suspicious. If she competes, I predict her jumps will be sketchy as always, but her artistry and spirals will elevate her past Ashley. I love Alissa, and über-rooted for her at ’09 Worlds in LA. But, since she effectively lost our third spot there, I feel she had her shot (as well as her moment as Nationals’ Champion), and will karmically sit this one out.

Men’s

(3 berths)

1. Evan Lysacek
2. Johnny Weir
3. Jeremy Abbott

I think Evan has just been too consistent and confident to rule out, despite my biases (see below). Although Jeremy has more scoring potential than Johnny, I give Johnny the edge because of his season thus far. With Ryan Bradley & Brandon Mroz threatening to unleash a gauntlet of quads (ie: planning 3 quads each!) they could really shake things up, but I’m not betting on it. I don’t think Adam Rippon will get control of his 3A enough this time, but he will easily reign in the next Olympic season. And, Stephen Carriere has seemingly faded as a real threat.

Pairs

(2 berths)

1. McLaughlin & Brubaker (McBru”)
2. Denney & Barrett
3. Inoue & Baldwin

McBru will get on top of their programs enough to eek out another Nationals’ title. Denney & Barrett will play second fiddle this one LAST time. And, Inoue & Baldwin will just miss making the Olympic team. Although I salute their staying power and persistence, I don’t root for them this time, whether they land their throw 3A, or not. I just don’t think they have Olympic podium potential anymore, even on their best day.

Ice Dance

(3 berths)

1. Davis & White (Marlie”)
2. Belbin & Agosto
3. Samuelson & Bates

It’s becoming clearer and clearer, this may be Marlie’s first time to wrestle the Nationals’ crown from Belbin & Agosto in a head-to-head. Samuelson & Bates technical skating (ie: twizzles and speed) will land them bronze, a rung down from last season’s result. Fresh from Juniors, the Shibutanis and Chock & Zuerlein could shake things up for the bronze medal!

Wish List

These are my personal favs, and special requests.:

Flatt: to become a first-time Nationals’ Champion, and make the Olympic team
Weir: to become a four-time Nationals’ Champion, or at least get to Olympics
Abbott: to skate his best this season, and make the Olympic team
Jonathan Cassar: to get some tv air time, and be introduced to skating viewers
Denney & Barrett: to become first-time Nationals’ Champions
Navarro & Bommetre: to make the Olympic team (fingers crossed!)

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7 comments so far

  1. Anonymous on

    you mean “ashley wagner”, not amber. :-) I think.

  2. Dgerb on

    Hi, nice post! But do you mean Ashley Wagner instead of Amber? Just making sure…I was a little confused there. thanks!

  3. jumping clapping man on

    Hahaha! Indeed! Thanks readers. It has been corrected. I suppose I deserved that after scoffing at another bloggers post that read “Johnny Abbott”.

    I guess I was caught somewhere inbetween my skating and opera worlds, as Amber Wagner is a new dramatic soprano on the horizon. Read a bit about her (NOT Ashley) here.: http://www.myspace.com/amberwagnersoprano

    She also appears in “The Audition”, which is showing again on PBS (in the Bay Area and elsewhere) next week. Don’t miss it!: http://www.broadwayworld.com/article/The_MET_Presents_The_Documentary_Film_THE_AUDITION_20090126

  4. Aaron on

    It’s so hard for me to predict nationals…extra hard in an Olympic Year. As I start to think about who will medal and make the Olympic Team I start to think about who wont and it makes me too sad (There will be as many dreams made as broken).

    So I chose to make no predictions and instead shriek like a girl as it all unfolds.

  5. jumping clapping man on

    I hope I can hear your shrieks all the way from the west coast!!! I hear ya on the dark, emotional side of discluding skaters. It can sometimes feel like you’re not giving them a karmic boost or chance. Ah hell, I choose to predict anyways!

  6. Laura on

    I have the same “karmic” problems making predictions sometimes! I start to feel like I want my predictions to be right but I never predict how I actually WANT it to shake out! Great predictions…SO EXCITED!

  7. jumping clapping man on

    Well, it turns out I was 6 for 12 (exact placements), and 10 for 12 (correct skaters on podium).

    Meh! But, not too bad. The Cohen/Nagasu wildcards, and McBru meltdowns were impossible to foresee. ALL my wish list items were met, except the last one.

    Ah well…you can’t have everything!


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