Archive for the ‘predictions’ Tag

jcm’s Torino 2010 Worlds Predictions

Here we go again…predictions, one last time this season! AND, the competition returns to Il Palavela, in Torino, site of the 2006 Winter Games.

Torino Redux


Ladies

1) Yu-Na
2) Asada
3) Ando
4) Nagasu
(GO Rachael & Mirai! Joannie has pulled out, and will be replaced by Myriane Samson.)

Mens

1) Takahashi
2) Chan
3) Oda
4) Rippon
(BREAKING NEWS: Plushy has just withdrawn. Evan, Stéphane, Tomáš, and Johnny were already out.)

Pairs

1) Savchenko & Szolkowy
2) Pang & Tong
3) Kavaguti & Smirnov
4) Mukhortova & Trankov
(I think SzolChenko will have a fire in their belly after Vancouver.)

Ice Dance

1) Davis & White
2) Virtue & Moir
3) Faiella & Scali
4) Pechalat & Bourzat
(I’m very excited about the french or italians finally landing on the podium!)

Now, please share yours!

jcm’s Olympics’ Predictions Contest Winners

Congratulations!


Kudos to the winners of jcm’s Olympics Podium Predictions contest!

"Santa Queer Lucia": Patron Saint of Queers

Pairs: Jean-Samuel Gagnon, with top 3 correct = 15 points

Men’s: MIZ, with top 2 correct =
11 points

Ice Dance: MF (perfect!), with top 4 correct = 16 points

Ladies: LJ, with top 3 correct =
15 points

Your Amazon.com prizes will be sent via email to you winners this week, and once you confirm your email address. (Please respond to the private email you received.)

Many winners benefited from early submissions, as their were multiple ties in several disciplines.

Personally, jcm predicted the ice dance top four, as well as the ladies and pairs top three correctly. Not too bad. However, I failed miserably on the men’s.

The Collective Opinion of Participants


As per the collective opinion of contest participants, the ice dance result ended up EXACTLY (top 4) as predicted. The ladies top three were correctly predicted. The pairs’ gold was a slam-dunk. But, overall the pairs, and especially the men’s were, as we all know less predictable.

Thanks for taking part, and keep your eyes open for jcm’s next contest!

jcm’s USFS Nationals’ Podium Predictions

Chime in with your own predictions! If you wish to take part in my Olympics’ Podium Predictions Contest, click here.

Ladies

(2 berths)

1. Rachael Flatt
2. Sasha Cohen
3. Ashley Wagner

IF Sasha withdraws:

1. Rachael Flatt
2. Ashley Wagner
3. Alissa Czisny

Although Sasha has confirmed her attendance as recently as last week, I’m providing a backup plan, as I’m still suspicious. If she competes, I predict her jumps will be sketchy as always, but her artistry and spirals will elevate her past Ashley. I love Alissa, and über-rooted for her at ’09 Worlds in LA. But, since she effectively lost our third spot there, I feel she had her shot (as well as her moment as Nationals’ Champion), and will karmically sit this one out.

Men’s

(3 berths)

1. Evan Lysacek
2. Johnny Weir
3. Jeremy Abbott

I think Evan has just been too consistent and confident to rule out, despite my biases (see below). Although Jeremy has more scoring potential than Johnny, I give Johnny the edge because of his season thus far. With Ryan Bradley & Brandon Mroz threatening to unleash a gauntlet of quads (ie: planning 3 quads each!) they could really shake things up, but I’m not betting on it. I don’t think Adam Rippon will get control of his 3A enough this time, but he will easily reign in the next Olympic season. And, Stephen Carriere has seemingly faded as a real threat.

Pairs

(2 berths)

1. McLaughlin & Brubaker (McBru”)
2. Denney & Barrett
3. Inoue & Baldwin

McBru will get on top of their programs enough to eek out another Nationals’ title. Denney & Barrett will play second fiddle this one LAST time. And, Inoue & Baldwin will just miss making the Olympic team. Although I salute their staying power and persistence, I don’t root for them this time, whether they land their throw 3A, or not. I just don’t think they have Olympic podium potential anymore, even on their best day.

Ice Dance

(3 berths)

1. Davis & White (Marlie”)
2. Belbin & Agosto
3. Samuelson & Bates

It’s becoming clearer and clearer, this may be Marlie’s first time to wrestle the Nationals’ crown from Belbin & Agosto in a head-to-head. Samuelson & Bates technical skating (ie: twizzles and speed) will land them bronze, a rung down from last season’s result. Fresh from Juniors, the Shibutanis and Chock & Zuerlein could shake things up for the bronze medal!

Wish List

These are my personal favs, and special requests.:

Flatt: to become a first-time Nationals’ Champion, and make the Olympic team
Weir: to become a four-time Nationals’ Champion, or at least get to Olympics
Abbott: to skate his best this season, and make the Olympic team
Jonathan Cassar: to get some tv air time, and be introduced to skating viewers
Denney & Barrett: to become first-time Nationals’ Champions
Navarro & Bommetre: to make the Olympic team (fingers crossed!)

jcm’s ‘10 Olympics’ Podium Predictions Contest

It’s nearly one month til the Opening Ceremony of the Vancouver Winter Olympics! In celebration and anticipation, I invite you to take part in my contest, the second of its kind on jcm, since my 09 Worlds’ Contest. You contribute nothing but figure skating placement predictions, I make no profit, and it’s not linked to any organization or business…it’s just for fun!

TO PLAY

Post your predictions for the top 4 medal placements (including the fourth place “pewter” medal), in any or all 4 figure skating disciplines in the “Comments” for this post. If your username is not linked to your email address, be sure to include your email address as well, or email it to me, so I can contact you should you win. Refer to the early submissions for the basic format, and you may use your initials only, if you wish. Predictions or resubmissions must be posted before midnight, February 12th. I will announce any skater withdrawals in the “Comments” for this post.

SCORING

  • 15 points for correct top 3 placements (gold, silver, & bronze) for 1 discipline (if achieved, the next 3 scoring items are not added)
  • 6 points for 1 correct gold medal placement
  • 5 points for 1 correct silver medal placement
  • 4 points for 1 correct bronze medal placement
  • 2 points for 1 correct medalist in any top 3 placement (ie: you post “Jane Doe – silver medal”, but Jane wins bronze)
  • 1 point for 1 correct fourth place “pewter” medal placement
  • 1 bonus point for 4 correct top 4, in any top placement (ie: you post correct top 4, BUT some or all are in wrong placement)

PRIZES

The winner for each discipline will be awarded a $20 online amazon.com gift certificate, the week following the Olympics. (A total of $80.00 in prizes are at stake!)


ATHLETES

You can review the Vancouver Athletes, in all 4 figure skating disciplines here. (Once an official competitor list is published, I’ll provide the link.) Check out the season’s best total scores for men, ladies, pairs, ice dance.

And, keep an eye on the official Olympic Schedule and Results here.

The small print:

If there are any withdrawals before Feb. 12, you may resubmit your predictions, but I discourage you from doing so for unaffected disciplines, as you will risk losing a tie-breaker because of resubmitting later. If a withdrawal in any discipline effects your prediction, your 4th place prediction will be counted as your bronze medal prediction (this is why the 4th place prediction is essential.) If there are 2 withdrawals in any discipline that effect your prediction, the remaining skaters in that discipline will be counted as your top 2 prediction. If there are no withdrawals in a discipline, the fourth place prediction serves as a top 3 tie-breaker. In the case of a top 4 tie, the earlier post prevails (including any resubmissions).

I have revised the scoring, since my ’09 Worlds’ Predictions Contest, to increase fairness, and account for more possible scenarios. Have fun y’all!

Cast your GP Final votes!

Select your final picks for the Grand Prix podiums in each discipline (select three medalists per poll)! Since these polls don’t allow you to order your votes, please share those in comments. Review all GP season-to-date results here. My predictions may be rather predictable, but I gladly welcome surprises…go underdogs! (I’m recalling Sandhu in ’03, Asada in ’05, and Abbott last year.)

My bets:
1) Oda
2) Lysacek
3) Takahashi

My bets:
1) Yu-Na
2) Rochette
3) Ando

My bets:
1) Shen & Zhao
2) Savchenko & Szolkowy
3) Pang & Tong

My bets:
1) Virtue & Moir
2) Davis & White
3) Pechalat & Bourzat

My analysis

I feel Jeremy Abbott will peak closer to Nationals and Olympics (or, at least I hope so), so I’ve left him off the podium here (guessing he’ll garner the pewter medal). He himself has stated that he doesn’t want to peak too early, so I feel that being the reigning champion here will prevent him from really being on the attack. With Joubert, Plushenko and Chan absent, these men better take advantage of this opportunity to build their confidence. Can anyone tell me when the last time was that the USA had three men at the GP Final (and if we ever have)? This seems to me a big, but much overlooked achievement. It hasn’t happened in at least a decade, as per my perusal of results as far back as they appear to go online. [UPDATE: Aaron at Axels, Loops & Spins has confirmed that the USA has never sent three men to the GP Final!]

My ladies predictions are the same as last year’s Worlds. I don’t think Wagner has enough momentum yet to medal here, but she’s gaining on the competition.

I think Shen & Zhao will best Savchenko & Szolkowy this time, but it will be VERY close. This has to be the most difficult to predict match up in all four disciplines!

And, when stacked next to each other (which hasn’t yet happened this season), I think Virtue & Moir will edge out Davis & White. With Belbin & Agosto, Delobel & Schoenfelder, and Domnina & Shabalin out of the picture here, this will hardly be telling of the Vancouver smack down.

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